????????? ????????? ???????????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ???????????? ???????. ??? ????????? ? ???????? ?????????????? ?? ??????? ???????? ????????? ? ?????????????? NAPM ? ?? ???????????? ? ??? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ???????????.
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Разместил: Gepard   Дата: 2010-07-29 21:28
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?????? ??????????? ?? Durable Orders. ????? ? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ??????????? - ????? ????? ???????????????? ? ???????? ???????, ??????? "????????????" ? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????? ???????????? ? ????????. ????? ?????? ???????????? ??? ????????? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ??? ? ???????, ??? ?????? ????? ?????????????? ???????????? ??????????? (?? ????, ??????????? ?????????? ????????????, ?????? ? ?????????? ??? ???????, ? ?.?.). ? ??????? ??????????? ??????????? ????????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ???. ? ??? ?????????: ??????????, ?????? ? ??. ??? ????, ????? ???????? ????????????, ???????? ??????? ? ???????????? ???????, ?? ????? ?????????? ???????? ??????????, ??????? ?? ????????? ?????? ??? ????????? ?????????????? (Durable goods orders excluding defence) ? ???????????? ?????? (Durable goods orders excluding transportation). ????????? ?????? ???????? - ?????????, ?????????? ?????? ? %. ? ??????????? ?????? ???? ?????? ?? ??????????? ?????? ??????? ? ???. ????.
????????? ?????????? :
Durable Goods New Orders = Shipments (Sales) + change in Durable Goods Unfilled Orders
Total Durable Goods Orders =
• Consumer Goods and Materials Orders ( ??????????????? ?????? ? ????????? ) +
• Capital Goods Orders (???????? ????????????)
Nondefence Capital Goods Orders (???????? ???????????? ?? ??? ?????????? ?????????)
• Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft and parts
Defence Capital Goods Orders (???????? ???????????? ??? ?????????? ?????????)
Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft and parts (?????? ??????? ???????????? ??? ????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ??????? ? ??????) ?????????? ????? 20% ???? Total Durable Goods Orders. ??? ???????? :
• nondefense portions of ordnance ( ?????????? ????? ordnance),
• steam, gas, and hydraulic turbines ( ??? , ??? , ? ?????????????? ??????? ),
• internal combustion engines ( ????????? ??????????? ???????? ),
• construction, mining,and material handling equipment ( ??????????? , ????? ? ?????????????? ???????????? ),
• metalworking machinery (???????????? ????????????????),
• special industry machinery (??????????? ???????????? ????????????),
• electrical transmission and distribution equipment ( ???????? ?????????????? ? ?????????????? ???????????? ),
• electrical industrial apparatus ( ????????????? ???????????? ??????? ),
• communications equipment ( ???????????? ????? ),
• railroad equipment (??????????????? ????????????),
• search and navigation equipment (????????? ? ????????????? ????????????).
????? ??????????? ? 08-30 ???? ???????????? ??? ? 16-30 ?? ??????????? ??????? ?? ?????? ???????? ??????, ?????? ?? 18-? ??????? ???? ??????, ?????????? ?? ???????? ???????? ???? ?????????? ?????? ???????? (Commerce Department, Census Bureau), ?? ?????????? ?????.
??????????? ? ??????? ????????????. ????????? ????????? ???????????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ???????????? ???????. ??? ????????? ? ???????? ?????????????? ?? ??????? ???????? ????????? ? ?????????????? NAPM ? ?? ???????????? ? ??? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ???????????.
??????????? ????????? ??????????. ???? ????????? ???????? ?????? ??? ?????, ??? ??? ?? ???? ????????????? ?? ??????????? ???????????? ???? ????????? ? ??????? ????????????? ????????. ????????? ?????? ??????????? ??????????? ????? ?????????? ??????, ?? ?????????? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ?????????? ?????????? ???????????? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ????????. ????? ???????, ???? ????? ?????????? ???????? ????????????? ???????? ??? ???????? ????????? ? ???????? ? ????? ????? ???????????? ??????. ??????????? ???????????? : ????????? ? ???????????? ??????, ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????????? ???????? ????????? ???????????. ????????? ????? ????????? ????? 5-6% ???? ??????? ? 1992, ?? ????? ?? 50% ???? ?????????. ??????????, ?????? ? ??????? ???????????? ??????? ?????????? ? ?????????????, ??????? ?????????? ????? 25% ???? ??????? ? ????? ????????? ????????? ??????? ? ???????, ??????? ???????? ??????? ????. ??? ????, ????? ?????? ???????? ??????????? ???????? ???????????? ???????? ??????????????? ?? ????????? ???????????: ????? ?????? ??????? ??????????? ??????????? ??? ?????????? ?????? ? ????? ?????? ??? ???????????????.
????????? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ??????????? ?????? ????????????? ?????????? ???????? ????? ? ?????????? ????????? ? ???? ??????????????. ? ??????? ?????????? ????????????? ?? 1.5% ?? ????? ? ??????? ???? ?????????????? ? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? 0,5-0,7%?/? ? ??????? ???? ??????????. ??????? ???????, ??? ????????? ?? ????????? ???? ???, ?.?. ?????????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? ??????????? ????????? ?????????.
????? ? ??????? ??????????? ??????????? ????? ?????? ???????? ??? ?????????? ???????????? ??????? ??????? ????????????? ??????????? (the composite index of leading economic indicators), ?? ???? ??? ?? ???? 11 ??????????? :
• ????? ?????? ??? ??????? ???????????? ? ??????????? ?????,
• ????? ??????? ??? ??????????????? ??????? ?
• ????????????? ???????.
??????? ?????????? ?????????????? ??????? leading indicator ????? ??????? ?????? ? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ???????????.

 
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